Monday, January 17, 2005

Bushs Grand PNAC Plan: Incite Civil War in Iraq


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ZNet - Jan 15, 2005
http://www.zmag.org/content/showarticle.cfm?SectionID=15&ItemID=7030

Bushs Grand Plan: Incite Civil War

by Mike Whitney

The Bush Administration is intentionally steering Iraq towards
civil war. The elections are merely the catalyst for igniting, what
could be, a massive social upheaval. This explains the bizarre
insistence on voting when security is nearly nonexistent and where a
mere 7% of the people can even identify the candidates. (This figure
gleaned from Allawis Baghdad newspaper, Al-Sabah) Rumsfeld is using
the elections as a springboard for aggravating tensions between
Sunnis and Shiites and for diverting attention away from the troops.
Its a foolhardy move that only magnifies the desperation of the
present situation. The Pentagon brass expected a cakewalk and,
instead, theyve found themselves mired in a guerilla war.

Everyone from Brent Scowcroft to Tom Friedman has speculated on
the likelihood of civil war. Their comments are more reflective of
the hopes of American elites than they are of realities on the
ground. Sure, Friedman would like to see Muslims killing Muslims,
but it wont happen. Tom hasnt guessed right on the war yet, and
thats not about to change. The same could be said for Rumsfeld. For
a Sec-Def who regards information as power, Rumsfeld seems
woefully blinkered by the true nature of the fighting. He seems
incapable of grasping even the most basic elements of the conflict
or the psychology that fuels it. Whatever happened to the military
mantra, Know your enemy?

When you destroy a mans home and kill and disgrace his
friends, hell fight back. And, when you rob a man of everything he
has, including his dignity, you leave him with one, solitary
passion rage. This rage is now animating the resistance in ways
that no one had previously anticipated. The worlds lone superpower
is roped to the ground like Gulliver and the Pentagon high-command
is getting increasingly agitated.

Civil war can be messy. Inciting religious and sectarian
hatreds tends to disrupt the smooth execution of business; like the
purging of potential enemies and the extracting of vital resources.
Never the less, Rumsfeld is nearly out of options; divide and
conquer may be all thats left. If we glance at the last 3 imperial
projects; Kosovo, Haiti and Afghanistan, the very same strategy was
applied. All three nations have been effectively carved up,
delivered to US multi-national corporations, and reduced to
warlordism or anarchy. Their outcome sets the precedent for similar
results in Iraq. Will Iraq be Balkenized along ethnic and religious
lines?

Thats what the Generals are hoping, and their plan is already
in full swing. The Marines deployed Shiite National Guards during
the siege of Falluja with the obvious intention of exacerbating
tensions between the two factions. The Kurdish Peshmerga was
utilized in Mosul for the very same purpose. Also, there have been a
number of suspicious bombings (particularly the attacks on Sunni
clerics in Najaf and Kerbala) that are not at all consistent with
the insurgent pattern, but suggest a clandestine (CIA?) operation to
incite hostilities. Add to this the projected election results,
which will tilt heavily towards the Shiites, and theres a real
potential for internecine violence. Its easy to see how Pentagon
planners might think that these provocations could auger a massive
internal struggle. It wont happen, though.

Whatever we may think of the Iraqis at this point, one thing is
certain; they know who their enemy is. The element of surprise or
deception has evaporated like the plumes of smoke dispersing over
Falluja. They know who we are, and they know they want us out.
Deteriorating Security

Rumsfeld finally seems to be grasping the seriousness of the
predicament. The security situation has deteriorated so dramatically
that even his support among elites is eroding. Last week foreign
policy Gurus, Brent Scowcroft and Zbigniew Brzezinski, fired off a
salvo of criticism directed at the mishandling of the occupation.
The normally circumspect Brzezinski was particularly savage,
slamming the war as a sign of moral decay; a euphemism that will
undoubtedly send shock waves through Americas boardrooms and
think-tanks.

James Dobbins of the conservative Rand Corporation was equally
ferocious, stating bluntly that The beginning of wisdom is to
realize that the United States cant win. Cant win?

Dobbins probably should have added, Cant win, but wont
leave, as the appropriate adjunct to his first observation.
American elites may disparage the conduct of the occupation, but
theyve tied the nations future to its success and wont give up
easily.

Rumsfeld Shifts Gears

There are signs that the recalcitrant Rumsfeld is beginning to
get the message. Last week he dispatched retired General Gary Luck
to Iraq to produce a detailed breakdown of force strength and
vulnerabilities. When Luck returns he will appear before Congress
and make an energetic appeal for more troops and stiffer resolve. He
can be expected to draw a dismal picture of a failed state that
threatens to destabilize the entire region unless America makes a
greater commitment. Both the Congress and the media will play a role
in calling on the American people for steadfastness in the face of a
very long and bloody occupation. Many believe that Lucks assessment
will determine whether Bush will approach Congress to reinstate the
draft.

Enlisting the skills of General Luck is an indication that
Rumsfeld is giving ground to his critics; that he is no longer
elevating his judgment above all others. His bungling of every
aspect of the war has limited his ability to act unilaterally. He
will either have to demonstrate some level of cooperation or step
down. The wars two main debacles so far can be directly pinned on
Rumsfeld. First, he went in too light (without sufficient manpower
to secure the peace) and second, he dismissed the 400,000 strong
Iraqi military, the majority of whom now comprise the resistance.
The final outcome in Iraq will certainly rest heavily on those two
foolish choices. Leveling Falluja

The siege of a Falluja was a crossroads for the American
occupation. The right-wing punditocracy insisted that the resistance
in Falluja be crushed by any means possible; preferably overwhelming
force. The Baghdad enclave of 250,000 was decimated by the
relentless pounding of US aerial bombardment and a full-fledged
ground assault that left over 700 civilians dead; 70% of whom were
women and children.

In the first attack on Falluja Lt. Col. B. P. McCoy noted that,
We dont want to rubblize the city. That will give the enemy more
places to hide. McCoys injunction was ignored during the second
(Nov 8) siege. The city has been both rubblized and rendered
uninhabitable. (according to the Red Crescent)

The Bush administration applied the nuclear option to
Falluja; leveling the city to send a message that future resistance
would be dealt with accordingly. The message was faithfully rejected.

If anything, Falluja has only strengthened the resolve of the
anti-American forces and increased recruitment for the resistance.
The violence has spread and intensified throughout the Sunni
Triangle, with the number of attacks skyrocketing to 75 per day.
Falluja has removed any doubt from the minds of young Iraqi men that
a nonviolent settlement is possible. The flattening of a city of
250,000 confirms, in stark terms, that the war will be decided by
force of arms. Falluja has removed whatever gray area there may
have been before.

The numbers of insurgents are steadily on the rise since the
siege. The strength of the current rebellion was estimated last week
by Iraqs Intelligence Chief, General Mohammed Shahwani. Shahwani
told a Saudi newspaper that the US was facing 40,000 hard-core
fighters and a support group of as many as 150,000 to 200,000.

Predictably, the story was buried in the western press, but the
implications are clear. The Pentagon has been intentionally
misleading the American people about the size and strength of the
insurgency. (previous estimates were between 5,000 to 20,000) These
new figures, which are now supported by many independent defense
analysts, point to an insurgency which is numerically larger than
the occupation and fully prepared to fight a long and gory guerilla
war. This brings us back to James Dobbins observation The beginning
of wisdom is to realize that the United States cant win.

Indeed.

Fallujas failure means that the prospect of destroying the
rest of Iraqs cities is more remote. Rather, success will depend on
increasing the number of US troops and developing a long term
strategy for incrementally establishing security. The only other
option is to deflect attention from the occupation forces by
inciting widespread instability. A civil war may serve the short
term interests of the administration, but it could also provoke
region-wide turmoil. Its a risk that no sane person would consider.
The determination to carry out the Jan 30 elections further proves
that the administration has not veered from the reckless and
delusional strategies that have thrust the mission to the brink of
disaster.

Months ago, Baghdad correspondent, Andrew Cockburn warned that
the United States was in danger of losing the war in Iraq. Since
then the security situation has steadily worsened and vast swaths of
the country have come under rebel control. Every promotional device
the administration has used (the forming of the Coalition
Provisional Authority; the transfer of sovereignty and, now, the
elections) has backfired; bringing on larger attacks and stiffer
resistance. Rumsfelds high-tech warfare has degenerated into
death squads and torture chambers; a pitiable return to medieval
combat. The civilian leadership, drunk with hubris and greed, never
noticed the wave of insurgency looming in the distance. Now, theyre
facing daily trauma and death without a clear plan for success. The
Iraq mission is like a 21st century Striker-vehicle buried up to its
axels and lolling in the dessert sand. As the Jan 30 deadline
approaches, theres little sign that things will improve.

    

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Raleigh Myers
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