Friday, November 26, 2004

Ra Energy Fdn.
Raleigh Myers
Worksheet bio
http://www.igc.apc.org/raenergy/bio.html
Blog
http://raenergy.blogspot.com/

Joseph Stiglitz: IMF'S FOUR STEPS TO DAMNATION

IMF'S FOUR STEPS TO DAMNATION
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,4177445,00.html

How crises, failures, and suffering finally drove a
Presidential adviser to the wrong side of the barricades

Gregory Palast
Sunday April 29, 2001
The Observer

It was like a scene out of Le Carr: the brilliant agent
comes in from the cold and, in hours of debriefing, empties
his memory of horrors committed in the name of an ideology
gone rotten.

But this was a far bigger catch than some used-up Cold War
spy. The former apparatchik was Joseph Stiglitz, ex-chief
economist of the World Bank. The new world economic order
was his theory come to life.

He was in Washington for the big confab of the World Bank
and International Monetary Fund. But instead of chairing
meetings of ministers and central bankers, he was outside
the police cordons. The World Bank fired Stiglitz two years
ago. He was not allowed a quiet retirement: he was
excommunicated purely for expressing mild dissent from
globalisation World Bank-style.

Here in Washington we conducted exclusive interviews with
Stiglitz, for The Observer and Newsnight, about the inside
workings of the IMF, the World Bank, and the bank's 51%
owner, the US Treasury.

And here, from sources unnamable (not Stiglitz), we obtained
a cache of documents marked, 'confidential' and
'restricted'.

Stiglitz helped translate one, a 'country assistance
strategy'. There's an assistance strategy for every poorer
nation, designed, says the World Bank, after careful
in-country investigation.

But according to insider Stiglitz, the Bank's
'investigation' involves little more than close inspection
of five-star hotels. It concludes with a meeting with a
begging finance minister, who is handed a 'restructuring
agreement' pre-drafted for 'voluntary' signature.

Each nation's economy is analysed, says Stiglitz, then the
Bank hands every minister the same four-step programme.

Step One is privatisation. Stiglitz said that rather than
objecting to the sell-offs of state industries, some
politicians - using the World Bank's demands to silence
local critics - happily flogged their electricity and water
companies. 'You could see their eyes widen' at the
possibility of commissions for shaving a few billion off the
sale price.

And the US government knew it, charges Stiglitz, at least in
the case of the biggest privatisation of all, the 1995
Russian sell-off. 'The US Treasury view was: "This was
great, as we wanted Yeltsin re-elected. We DON'T CARE if
corrupt election." '

Stiglitz cannot simply be dismissed as a conspiracy nutter.
The man was inside the game - a member of Bill Clinton's
cabinet, chairman of the President's council of economic
advisers.

Most sick-making for Stiglitz is that the US-backed
oligarchs stripped Russia's industrial assets, with the
effect that national output was cut nearly in half.

After privatisation, Step Two is capital market
liberalisation. In theory this allows investment capital to
flow in and out. Unfortunately, as in Indonesia and Brazil,
the money often simply flows out.

Stiglitz calls this the 'hot money' cycle. Cash comes in for
speculation in real estate and currency, then flees at the
first whiff of trouble. A nation's reserves can drain in
days.

And when that happens, to seduce speculators into returning
a nation's own capital funds, the IMF demands these nations
raise interest rates to 30%, 50% and 80%.

'The result was predictable,' said Stiglitz. Higher interest
rates demolish property values, savage industrial production
and drain national treasuries.

At this point, according to Stiglitz, the IMF drags the
gasping nation to Step Three: market-based pricing - a fancy
term for raising prices on food, water and cooking gas. This
leads, predictably, to Step-Three-and-a-Half: what Stiglitz
calls 'the IMF riot'.

The IMF riot is painfully predictable. When a nation is,
'down and out, [the IMF] squeezes the last drop of blood out
of them. They turn up the heat until, finally, the whole
cauldron blows up,' - as when the IMF eliminated food and
fuel subsidies for the poor in Indonesia in 1998. Indonesia
exploded into riots.

There are other examples - the Bolivian riots over water
prices last year and, this February, the riots in Ecuador
over the rise in cooking gas prices imposed by the World
Bank. You'd almost believe the riot was expected.

And it is. What Stiglitz did not know is that Newsnight
obtained several documents from inside the World Bank. In
one, last year's Interim Country Assistance Strategy for
Ecuador, the Bank several times suggests - with cold
accuracy - that the plans could be expected to spark 'social
unrest'.

That's not surprising. The secret report notes that the plan
to make the US dollar Ecuador's currency has pushed 51% of
the population below the poverty line.

The IMF riots (and by riots I mean peaceful demonstrations
dispersed by bullets, tanks and tear gas) cause new flights
of capital and government bankruptcies This economic arson
has its bright side - for foreigners, who can then pick off
remaining assets at fire sale prices.

A pattern emerges. There are lots of losers but the clear
winners seem to be the western banks and US Treasury.

Now we arrive at Step Four: free trade. This is free trade
by the rules of the World Trade Organisation and the World
Bank, which Stiglitz likens to the Opium Wars. 'That too was
about "opening markets",' he said. As in the nineteenth
century, Europeans and Americans today are kicking down
barriers to sales in Asia, Latin American and Africa while
barricading our own markets against the Third World 's
agriculture.

In the Opium Wars, the West used military blockades. Today,
the World Bank can order a financial blockade, which is just
as effective and sometimes just as deadly.

Stiglitz has two concerns about the IMF/World Bank plans.
First, he says, because the plans are devised in secrecy and
driven by an absolutist ideology, never open for discourse
or dissent, they 'undermine democracy'. Second, they don't
work. Under the guiding hand of IMF structural 'assistance'
Africa's income dropped by 23%.

Did any nation avoid this fate? Yes, said Stiglitz,
Botswana. Their trick? 'They told the IMF to go packing.'
Stiglitz proposes radical land reform: an attack on the 50%
crop rents charged by the propertied oligarchies worldwide.

Why didn't the World Bank and IMF follow his advice?

'If you challenge [land ownership], that would be a change
in the power of the elites. That's not high on their
agenda.'

Ultimately, what drove him to put his job on the line was
the failure of the banks and US Treasury to change course
when confronted with the crises, failures, and suffering
perpetrated by their four-step monetarist mambo.

'It's a little like the Middle Ages,' says the economist,
'When the patient died they would say well, we stopped the
bloodletting too soon, he still had a little blood in him.'

Maybe it's time to remove the bloodsuckers.

gregory.palast [at] observer.co.uk


Ra Energy Fdn.
Raleigh Myers
Worksheet bio
http://www.igc.apc.org/raenergy/bio.html
Blog
http://raenergy.blogspot.com/

Call to Action blog a virtual seminar for change
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Economic Armageddon?


Ra Energy Fdn.
Raleigh Myers
Worksheet bio
http://www.igc.apc.org/raenergy/bio.html
Blog
http://raenergy.blogspot.com/

From the Boston Herald:

Economic `Armageddon' predicted
By Brett Arends / On State Street
Tuesday, November 23, 2004

Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.

     But you should hear what he's saying in private.

     Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity.

     His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''

     Press were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said, ``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in public.''

     Roach sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that ``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''

     The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.

     In a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's record trade deficit means the dollar will keep falling. To keep foreigners buying T-bills and prevent a resulting rise in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates further and faster than he wants.

     The result: U.S. consumers, who are in debt up to their eyeballs, will get pounded.

     Less a case of ``Armageddon,'' maybe, than of a ``Perfect Storm.''

     Roach marshalled alarming facts to support his argument.

     To finance its current account deficit with the rest of the world, he said, America has to import $2.6 billion in cash. Every working day.

     That is an amazing 80 percent of the entire world's net savings.

     Sustainable? Hardly.

     Meanwhile, he notes that household debt is at record levels.

     Twenty years ago the total debt of U.S. households was equal to half the size of the economy.

     Today the figure is 85 percent.

     Nearly half of new mortgage borrowing is at flexible interest rates, leaving borrowers much more vulnerable to rate hikes.

     Americans are already spending a record share of disposable income paying their interest bills. And interest rates haven't even risen much yet.

     You don't have to ask a Wall Street economist to know this, of course. Watch people wielding their credit cards this Christmas.

     Roach's analysis isn't entirely new. But recent events give it extra force.

     The dollar is hitting fresh lows against currencies from the yen to the euro.

     Its parachute failed to open over the weekend, when a meeting of the world's top finance ministers produced no promise of concerted intervention.

     It has farther to fall, especially against Asian currencies, analysts agree.

     The Fed chairman was drawn to warn on the dollar, and interest rates, on Friday.

     Roach could not be reached for comment yesterday. A source who heard the presentation concluded that a ``spectacular wave of bankruptcies'' is possible.

     Smart people downtown agree with much of the analysis. It is undeniable that America is living in a ``debt bubble'' of record proportions.

     But they argue there may be an alternative scenario to Roach's. Greenspan might instead deliberately allow the dollar to slump and inflation to rise, whittling away at the value of today's consumer debts in real terms.

     Inflation of 7 percent a year halves ``real'' values in a decade.

     It may be the only way out of the trap.
     Higher interest rates, or higher inflation: Either way, the biggest losers will be long-term lenders at fixed interest rates.
     You wouldn't want to hold 30-year Treasuries, which today yield just 4.83 percent.

Ra Energy Fdn.
Raleigh Myers
Worksheet bio
http://www.igc.apc.org/raenergy/bio.html
Blog
http://raenergy.blogspot.com/


Call to Action blog a virtual seminar for change
http://www.google.com/search?q=Global+Vote+raenergy&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=02Eigc%2Eorg%2Faction%2Ehtml

Newsgroups beginning in the eighties click on date and web
http://groups.google.com/groups?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&q=%22Ra+Energy+Fdn%2E%22